The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
Issue link: https://comanpub.uberflip.com/i/1538670
SEPTEMBER 2025 ❱ THE WOLVERINE 65 T he night after Michigan football's 34-13 win over Washington in the 2024 College Football Playoff Na- tional Championship, NCAA president Charlie Baker was asked about the validity of the Wolverines' national champion- ship in light of the mid-season allega- tions of an illegal off-campus sign-steal- ing scheme orchestrated by former U-M staffer Connor Stalions. Baker's response was straightforward: Michigan earned its national championship "fair and square." Baker was and remains correct, even if more people are now wrongly claim- ing that it is tainted. The noise that Michigan's national title deserves an asterisk recently am- plified. On Aug. 15, the NCAA Division I Committee on Infractions (COI) issued its public infractions decision with re- spect to the purported Stalions-led ille- gal sign-stealing scheme. The COI ruled that the scheme and failure to cooperate constituted Level I violations. The COI found that "the scouting scheme likely provided Michigan with a competitive advantage" and that "al- though not quantifiable, Michigan's on- field success during the time the scheme was in place further suggests that the advantage gained was more than mar- ginal." Those hollering that U-M's na- tional championship is marred, namely rival fans who prayed for the "hammer," have leeched onto these statements. These critics, though, fail to see the forest for the trees. They would be cor- rect that Michigan's national title would be delegitimized if the illegal sign- stealing scheme had such an impact that it was the difference between the Wolverines winning and losing any of their games in the 2023 season. Clearly, however, that's not the case. Michigan would have been 15-0 regard- less of the scheme. On a video conference call with the media after issuing its public infractions decisions, the COI confirmed that, after Oct. 17, 2023 when Stalions was removed from the Michigan program, "there is no evidence that anything that he did af- fected the outcome of Michigan's games that season." Baker said something simi- lar when he made his remarks that, by making the allegations public in October 2023, it allowed Michigan and its oppo- nents to adjust and erase any potential unfair advantages that U-M had during the rest of the regular season and playoffs. The Wolverines played eight contests after Oct. 17, 2023. Four of them were against top-10 teams, and a fifth was against a ranked foe. Of those five, four were at road or neutral sites. And of those five, two were without then-head coach Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines. Yet, without any benefit the sign- stealing schemes may have previously afforded, they won all eight games, and their defense held all foes to no more than 24 points and five to fewer than 20. If anything, after Oct. 17, 2023, Michi- gan had more obstacles and adversity to overcome than its counterparts. The Wol- verines were in the midst of a firestorm brewing by the NCAA, Big Ten and media. There were new stories and developments nearly every day for the rest of the regular season, particularly with whether Har- baugh would be suspended or U-M would be banned from the postseason. Michigan does not deserve sympathy for this when much of this adversity was self-imposed, but it shows how remarkably talented and focused that 2023 squad really was. While Stalions' sign-stealing scheme was no longer in effect as of Oct. 17, 2023, some critics have argued that it still was in effect for the first seven games of the season, which taints U-M's national title. Although the COI concluded that the advantage of Stalions' scheme was unquantifiable but more than marginal, no reasonable person would say it was more than 24 points. That was Michigan's smallest margin of victory in its first seven wins. The Wolverines obliterated each of their first seven opponents so much that their starting quarterback J.J. McCar- thy needed to play only two series in the fourth quarter total in those seven games. That was not because of stealing signs. It was because Michigan was just flat-out better. The numbers concluded the same. Bill Connelly of ESPN created SP+, which is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. After Week 7 of the 2023 season, Michi- gan's SP+ rating, which is the number of points Michigan would be projected to beat an average D-I team, was 25.1. After Michigan won the national title, Michi- gan's SP+ rating was 31.3. It improved by a touchdown after Stalions' sign-steal- ing scheme was totally uprooted. Furthermore, Vegas sportsbooks, which consider any edge they can in cranking out their odds, made no ma- terial changes to Michigan's odds to win the national championship after news of Stalions' sign-stealing scheme broke. If the scheme provided U-M that much of a competitive advantage, Ve- gas sportsbooks would have dropped its odds significantly. But they did not, because Michigan was the best team in college football that season by any and all metrics, regardless of Stalions' scheme. The Wolverines proved it on the field. Fair and square. ❑ INSIDE THE NUMBERS ❱ DREW HALLETT Fair And Square After the sign-stealing allegations against Michigan and former staffer Connor Stalions were revealed on Oct. 17, 2023, U-M went out and won its next eight games with victories over four teams in the top 10 and one over another ranked foe en route to winning the CFP national championship. PHOTO BY DOMINICK SOKOTOFF Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on X (Twitter) @DrewCHallett.