Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
Issue link: https://comanpub.uberflip.com/i/616353
IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU able yards six times this season — the Irish offense did so only twice. The two defenses aren't even ei‑ ther, with Ohio State having the much stronger unit. The Buckeyes actually rank among the top five nationally in available yards allowed (32 per‑ cent), explosive drives permitted (7 percent) and value drives given up (23 percent). Ohio State ranks behind only Alabama in points allowed per non‑garbage drive (1.1) and third in touchdowns allowed per non‑garbage drive (0.12). The Irish have had mixed results with their boom‑or‑bust profile, fin‑ ishing 20th nationally in forcing three‑ and‑outs and 67th in allowing explo‑ sive drives. Based on the offensive and defen‑ sive profiles of the two teams, most of the scoring opportunities in the game should come on big plays. If the game comes down to special teams, the Irish should have the edge. Notre Dame ranks seventh nationally in field goal percentage on the season (15 of 17), and Ohio State ranks 116th (7 of 12). When we factor in the distance of those kicks and the national success rates from those distances, the Irish edge is even greater (ninth nationally versus 121st for the Buckeyes). Field position favors Ohio State, consistently one of the nation's best at giving itself an advantage in start‑ ing field position since head coach Urban Meyer arrived. The Buckeyes start drives 7.4 yards further down‑ field than their opponents on average, adding up to a 100‑yard advantage in hidden yardage per game. Notre Dame's offense is well equipped to score on long fields, but the bigger concern will be giving Ohio State short fields to work with — 18 percent of OSU's drives have started in opponent territory, almost twice as many short field drives as Notre Dame has had to date. This game is the 14th of the Brian Kelly era in which he has faced an opponent ranked within five spots of his own team's ranking according to FEI. As would be expected in such games, his record is just about .500 — 7‑6 overall (4‑1 at home, 2‑3 on the road, 1‑2 in neutral site games). Those three neutral site games in‑ clude the 35‑17 loss to Navy in 2010 and the 49‑39 victory over the Mid‑ shipmen in 2014. The other was an 18‑14 loss to Florida State in the 2011 Champs Sports Bowl. Seven of Notre Dame's 13 games played since 2010 against closely matched opponents were decided by a single score, includ‑ ing the close calls against Clemson and Stanford this season. Expect yet another close game in the Fiesta Bowl. The FEI game‑by‑game projections went a perfect 12‑0 this season, and here's hoping for another correct pick in the finale. ✦ Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com. FEI PROJECTION Notre Dame 26, Ohio State 25