The Wolverine

February 2023

The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports

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FEBRUARY 2023 THE WOLVERINE 65 M ichigan football's 51-45 defeat to TCU in the national semifi- nals as a 7.5-point favorite was agonizing when it occurred. Yet, how the pain lingers — and for how long — will depend on 2023. The Wolverines didn't just shoot themselves in the foot (or paw) once against TCU. They did it repeatedly with uncharacteristic, monumental mistakes. Four different plays were each worth more than seven points to the final score according to the metric of expected points added (EPA): the two pick-sixes thrown by J.J. McCarthy, Kalel Mullings' goal-line fumble and DJ Turner's missed tackle on third down that led to the Horned Frogs' 76-yard score in the fourth quarter. All four of these enormous plays ben- efited TCU in a game that Michigan lost by just six points. If any one of them had gone differently, the Wolverines prob- ably would have played for a national title. Instead, they had to walk off the Fiesta Bowl field with purple confetti raining down upon them. Since the Fiesta Bowl, though, two factors have emerged that may have mitigated the pain felt with Michigan's loss to TCU. First, Georgia blasted the Horned Frogs in a historical rout of 65-7 in the National Championship Game — the largest margin in any bowl game ever. Even if the Wolverines had beaten TCU, it seems more likely that they would have been bulldozed by the Bull- dogs like in the semifinals the prior sea- son and Georgia would still be crowned the champs. Second, and more notably, the Wol- verines should contend again for a na- tional championship next season with Jim Harbaugh remaining as head coach. Michigan is projected to return 15 of its 22 starters from this past season, plus many other critical contributors from the two-deep. Some are stars, such as unanimous All-America running back Blake Corum and Joe Moore Award- winning offensive guards Zak Zinter and Trevor Keegan, who may have surprised folks by coming back, possibly due in part to a successful retention NIL cam- paign. Michigan also did work in the portal and has hauled in one of the bet- ter transfer classes in the country. Thus, U-M should have one of its most tal- ented, experienced rosters in some time. Additionally, the Wolverines' path to a third consecutive playoff run is set- ting up quite nicely. There should be no slip-ups in the early weeks with another sleepy nonconference slate. Michigan's two biggest Big Ten challengers — Ohio State and Penn State — will be break- ing in new signal-callers, whereas U-M brings back its starter in McCarthy. Plus, the Wolverines will get the tre- mendous benefit of hosting their rival Buckeyes, a team that has not beaten them since 2019. Accordingly, Michigan has been pro- jected as high as No. 2 and in the top five of many way-too-early 2023 rank- ings. For the first time in a long time, Michigan should be expected to be the Big Ten's best. But this may not last for much longer after this next season. With back-to-back Big Ten trophies and College Football Playoff invitations, Michigan appears to be right in its cham- pionship window. Championship win- dows are the period of time that a team has to contend for and win a national title. Usually, championship windows close before anyone realizes it. Typically, it feels like that program is humming on all cylinders and can replicate that suc- cess yearly, so it is somewhat of a sur- prise when that window closes shut. Here, though, it seems very likely that Michigan's window will close af- ter 2023 (at least temporarily). All the key Wolverines that decided to return this season will depart after next sea- son. Michigan may also need to find a new quarterback if McCarthy chooses to declare early. Yet after whiffing on heralded Dante Moore in the 2023 class, Michigan's starting quarterback in 2024 may be a former walk-on (Davis War- ren), a true freshman or an incoming transfer. The Wolverines had a subpar recruit- ing class in 2023 relative to their stan- dards while trying to find their footing in the NIL landscape, and Harbaugh's annual flirtation with the NFL may im- pact the 2024 class as well. Plus, ending the 2024 season with a trip to Columbus is always a tough out. So, it feels like 2023 is all or noth- ing for the Wolverines. And even with it setting up nicely, coasting back to the College Football Playoff is no guarantee. Only three other programs have made three straight College Football Playoff appearances: Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma. Ohio State has not done it. Georgia has not done it (yet). And Geor- gia still needs to be toppled. If Michigan cannot take advantage of this next season, the sting of the loss to TCU will endure forever, full of what-ifs and what-could-have-beens. But if the Wolverines can put it all together and capitalize on the close of this champi- onship window with a title, that sting should subside. ❏ INSIDE THE NUMBERS   DREW HALLETT 2023 Can Soothe Pain Of 2022 Ending Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DrewCHallett. Q u a r t e r b a c k J. J. M c C a r t h y a n d t h e Wolverines will aim to make it three straight trips to the College Football Playoff in 2023. To date, only Alabama, Clemson and Oklahoma have achieved that feat. PHOTO BY DOMINICK SOKOTOFF

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