The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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APRIL 2023 ❱ THE WOLVERINE 65 M ichigan men's bas- ketball could not have ended its season in a more fitting way. Michigan held an eight- point lead at Vanderbilt with about one minute left and seemed poised to ad- vance to the NIT quarter- finals. But the Wolverines were anything but poised. They committed turnovers on three straight posses- sions against Vanderbilt's full-court press. S u d d e n l y, M i c h i g a n trailed by one point with the ball and 10 seconds left. With one last chance to make up for one full min- ute of mistakes, the Wol- verines could not find the bottom of the net. Hunter Dickinson's tap of Dug McDaniels' missed floater rolled off the rim. Then the buzzer sounded, and that was it. This ending was so fitting — and frustrating — because it encapsulated Michigan's season. The Wolverines posted a miserable record in close games all year. They were 4-13 overall (.235 win percentage) in contests decided by 6 points or fewer or in overtime. For com- parison's sake, nine Big Ten teams had at least a .500 record in such games, and Michigan was one of only two teams in the league that had a winning percent- age lower than .375 in such contests. Also, Michigan's record in close games is even worse — and more im- pactful — when filtered for the quality of their competition. Quad 1 wins, par- ticularly Quad 1-A wins, are incredibly important. They have been defined as quality victories, and, historically, the NCAA Tournament selection commit- tee has preferred to select bubble teams that have demonstrated that they can knock off the top dogs. Ten of Michigan's 14 Quad 1 games, including seven of its eight Quad 1-A games, were decided by 6 points or fewer or in overtime. And Michigan lost them all. This is why the Wolverines missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014-15 and snapped their streak of five straight Sweet 16 appearances. They needed to register more than two quality wins (i.e., at Northwestern and at Rutgers) and bolster their resume, particularly after losing a close contest to lowly Central Michigan at home. They clearly had plenty of chances with 10 close Quad 1 games. If they had pulled out just two or three of them, it probably would have been enough to hear their name called on Selection Sunday. Instead, they went 0-fer. Although some of these close Quad 1 losses counted as such because the Wol- verines made a larger deficit look more respectable at the end, many of these losses were due to Michigan meltdowns: • The Wolverines sur- rendered a 13-2 run to Vir- ginia on Nov. 29 with less than 10 minutes left in a four-point loss. • They blew a 7-point lead in the final two min- utes at Iowa on Jan. 12 be- fore getting run out of the gym in overtime. • They were shut out in the last five minutes of a 1-point loss versus Indiana on Feb. 11. • They failed to win at Wisconsin on Feb. 14 even though the Badgers did not make a single field goal in the last 10 minutes of the contest. • They squandered a 7-point lead in the first overtime session at Illinois on March 2 before falling in double overtime. • They relinquished a double-digit lead in the last 10 minutes of regula- tion in the regular-season finale March 5 at Indiana, with the Hoosiers holding on for a 2-point win in overtime. If Michigan had won half of these contests, it would have been dancing. But U-M lost all of them. It should be noted that Michigan win- ning a few more close games was not going to make it a championship con- tender. The Wolverines were still only 45th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin. But with a few more wins, Michigan could have made the NCAA Tournament, and given the parity in college basketball, U-M could have made a run and salvaged the season. Instead, it ended as it lived: with a heartbreaking loss in a game that Michi- gan should have won. ❏ INSIDE THE NUMBERS ❱ DREW HALLETT Michigan's Maddening Meltdowns Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DrewCHallett. Neither the ball nor the results bounced Michigan's way in close games this past season. Dug McDaniel (0), Hunter Dickinson (1) and Tarris Reed Jr. (32) experienced those difficulties firsthand. PHOTO BY LON HORWEDEL