The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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JUNE/JULY 2023 ❱ THE WOLVERINE 65 M ichigan men's basketball is at a pivotal moment of coach Ju- wan Howard's tenure. As this author has discussed in this column pre- viously — and it is no secret — Michigan has backslid the past two seasons, eking into the NCAA Tournament in 2021-22 before missing it altogether in 2022-23. For faith and confidence in Howard to be restored, the Wolverines need to rebound next season. Whether such a rebound occurs de- pends on how well Howard develops a player at his former position. Michigan has experienced lots of roster turbulence this offseason, losing its three most productive players. Shooting guard Kobe Bufkin (111.2 offensive rating — i.e., points per 100 possessions) and wing Jett Howard (111.5 ORtg) entered the NBA Draft and former second-team All- America center Hunter Dickinson (116.4 ORtg) elected to transfer to Kansas. Plus, Michigan's prized recruit at center, Papa Kante (82nd in 2023 via On3), decom- mitted and was granted a release from his National Letter of Intent. The Wolverines have made strides in the portal to make up for these losses. They landed a much-needed combo guard in North Carolina transfer Caleb Love to replace Bufkin, although Love's offensive efficiency (98.9 ORtg in 2022- 23) and shooting (45.2 effective field- goal percentage) are concerning. They also have incoming transfers at the three and four spots. Alabama transfer and wing Nimari Burnett should be a defensive stalwart on the perimeter, which U-M badly needs, and Seton Hall transfer and stretch four Tray Jackson can provide some offensive pop from beyond the arc. However, these transfer additions are not projected to help Michigan bounce back next season. T-Rank, a model that uses an algorithm to rank teams based on their expected winning percentage against an average Division I team, cal- culates that the Wolverines will continue to regress. As of May 15, T-Rank projects that, with Love, Burnett and Jackson in the fold, Michigan will be just 59th next season. This would be a 15-spot drop from last year's disappointment of 44th. Ad- ditionally, T-Rank anticipates that Michi- gan would be 12th-best out of 14 Big Ten programs. However, T-Rank's projection does not consider rising sophomore center Tarris Reed Jr. to be sizable factor next season. T-Rank expects Reed to play only 28 per- cent of Michigan's available minutes and to average just 3.9 points and 4.1 rebounds per contest. This is a mistake. Even though Howard has found rein- forcements in the transfer portal at guard and wing, he has not found anyone to replace Dickinson or fill in for the min- utes that Kante was expected to receive at center. Currently, Reed is the only true scholarship center on the roster. He likely will be the starter and earn the lion's share of the minutes at that spot. He should definitely be earning more playing time at center than Jackson, who was a reserve stretch four at Seton Hall and is more suited to a wing role. Even if Howard finds another post player in the portal such as Tennessee's Olivier Nkamhoua, who is more of a power for- ward than a center, T-Rank projects that the Wolverines still would be outside the top 50 nationally with Nkamhoua on the roster next season (51st). With T-Rank projecting Michigan to perform poorly with Reed playing few minutes despite the fact he should start, his development is U-M's best chance to exceed T-Rank's expectations. Reed has already shown the potential to be a menace on the glass and a mon- strous interior defender. His offensive rebounding rate (14.5 percent) and de- fensive rebounding rate (20.4 percent) would have been third and ninth in the Big Ten, respectively, if he played enough minutes to qualify, and his block rate (7.3 percent) would have been third in the league. His size (6-foot-10, 260 pounds) and athleticism are fueled by a high motor and relentless energy that completely leap off the screen. Where Reed needs to make his biggest strides is on the offensive end. For all of his defensive instincts, he was very raw with the ball in his hands (89.7 ORtg) and has lots of work to do on his shot and touch around the basket (59.4 field goal percentage at the rim and 51.7 percent overall). However, his improvement at the charity stripe over the course of the year (from 21.9 percent in the first 20 games to 57.6 percent in the last 14 games for a full-season average of 40 percent) re- vealed that Reed has the work ethic and ability to improve his shooting. Oftentimes, a player's leap from fresh- man to sophomore year shows the greatest improvement. Reed needs to be working on his offensive skills on his own and with Howard — a former NBA All- Star center who has guided many great ones in his coaching career — as much as NCAA rules permit. With that tutelage, Reed can become one of the most impactful players on both ends of the hardwood and help bal- ance U-M's production. And if Reed is ready to do that, he could change the trajectory of Howard and the Wolverines' program. ❏ INSIDE THE NUMBERS ❱ DREW HALLETT Tarris Reed Jr. Needs to Be Ready Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DrewCHallett. Reed saw action coming off the bench in all 34 of Michigan's games last season, aver- aging 3.4 points and 3.9 rebounds. He will play a pivotal role in the low post for the Wolverines in 2023-24. PHOTO BY LON HORWEDEL