Penn State Sports Magazine
Issue link: https://comanpub.uberflip.com/i/1524108
1 1 4 A U G U S T 2 0 2 4 W W W . B L U E W H I T E O N L I N E . C O M T he Penn State football team believes it is capable of making the newly expanded College Football Playoff in 2024. Oddsmakers agree, with FanDuel giving the Nittany Lions the sixth-best chance of any FBS team to earn one of 12 berths in the postseason tournament. There are many reasons for the high expectations. First-year coordina- tor Andy Kotelnicki has come aboard in hope of lifting junior quarterback Drew Allar and the rest of the offense to new heights. One of the nation's best defenses in 2023 returns many of its key players from a year ago, and it's not unrealistic to think that those who were lost to the NFL can be replaced with a mixture of returnees and portal rein- forcements. And then there's the schedule. While there are some obvious flaws in the process used to determine the difficulty of any given slate — starting with the reliance on data from the previous sea- son — it's always an interesting exercise, trying to figure out who has the most difficult path to the playoff, and who has the easiest. Penn State fans, as well as those out- side of the fan base, all appear to agree that the Nittany Lions are set to face a more forgiving slate than they might have expected when the Big Ten added four West Coast schools to the confer- ence in 2024. For starters, they miss Oregon, which is one of the five teams with better odds of making the playoff, and also Michigan, which checks in right below them and has beaten them the past three years. They do have to play one of the best teams in the coun- try, with their matchup against national title contender Ohio State set for Nov. 2, but that game will take place at Beaver Stadium. With that out of the way, let's turn to the sportsbooks to break down the rest of the schedule. FanDuel has only the Ducks, Nittany Lions, Buckeyes and Wolverines with 7-to-1 odds or better of winning the Big Ten. Penn State will face five teams with 100-to-1 odds or worse to win the conference in Mary- land, Illinois, UCLA, Minnesota and Purdue. The Boilermakers are tied with Rutgers for the worst odds of earning a playoff auto bid, coming in at a whop- ping 350-to-1. The Lions do have to go to USC, which has the fifth-best odds to take the Big Ten, but they avoid most of the heavier hitters and, again, get the Buckeyes at Beaver Stadium. With all that in mind, Phil Steele ranks Penn State's slate as the 49th- toughest in the FBS this year. Using Steele's metrics, which combine opin- ion and projections with 2023 statistics, Rutgers and Indiana are the only teams that will have it easier in the Big Ten than Penn State. His assessment of the schedule is one of the reasons he calls PSU a "legitimate national title con- tender." The College Football Network also has Penn State at No. 49 in its strength-of-schedule rankings. Is this the end-all, be-all for Penn State in 2024? Of course not. But the Li- ons do have an easier schedule on paper than most of their Big Ten peers, which makes it all the more enticing to wonder how James Franklin and company will go about taking advantage of their op- portunity. There are three new coordinators. There will be new starters at multiple positions, and the Lions will need to rely on younger players to fill some key backup roles. Nevertheless, many first-teamers from a year ago are back, giving the team a strong nucleus. That list is headlined by a contingent of high- impact juniors: Allar, running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, linebacker-turned-defensive-end Abdul Carter, middle linebacker Kobe King and safety Kevin Winston Jr. With the con- tinued development of those players, the emergence of some newcomers and for- mer backups as viable starters, plus some creativity from the new play-callers, there's reason to feel optimistic about Penn State's chances of making the CFP. Now, it must go out and execute. Few campaigns start with all the ingredients in place for a deep postseason run, but it would be hard to argue that the Lions do not have many of those ingredients on hand as they prepare for James Franklin's 11th season in State College. It's time, then, for the team to finally cook up a dish that leaves fans satisfied at both the end of the regular season and the end of the postseason, too. ■ O P I N I O N GREG PICKEL GREG.PICKEL@ON3.COM Lions' Slate Offers Both Challenges And Opportunities THE LAST WORD Abdul Carter (left) helped Penn State hold Ohio State to 79 rushing yards last season, but the Buckeyes will bring one of the best backfields in the country to Beaver Stadium on Nov. 2. PHOTO BY STEVE MANUEL