The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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SEPTEMBER 2024 ❱ THE WOLVERINE 65 T ypically, the most important game for Michigan football in a season is "The Game." No rivalry in college football is greater than Michi- gan and Ohio State. It is a game that has defined whether the Wolverines' or Buckeyes' season is a success or a failure regardless of what transpired earlier. Yet, despite all the history, stakes, friction and drama between the two programs, "The Game" is not the most important game on Michigan's slate. Rather, it is a contest right around the corner. It is when the No. 4 Texas Long- horns ride up to Ann Arbor for the co- lossal Week 2 matchup. This may seem like a blasphemous take, but just listen. The result of the Texas contest likely determines the path of Michigan's sea- son. It is a very early crossroads. With a win, the Wolverines should roll toward Big Ten title contention and another College Football Playoff berth. With a loss, U-M's campaign could slide off the rails quickly. The defending national champion generally is reloading and topping the preseason polls the next season. Michi- gan is not the typical defending national champion. It is hard to recall the last time a reigning national champion had as many question marks and received as much doubt as Michigan. The reason? The Wolverines lost a huge portion of production from their cham- pionship team. According to ESPN's Bill Connelly's metric, they are 126th out of 134 FBS teams in overall returning pro- duction (41 percent). Michigan does have serious star power back on defense in defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant and cornerback Will Johnson, so SP+ still projects U-M will be third in Defensive SP+. But turning over nearly the entire starting offense—132nd in offensive returning production (28 percent) — having no sure option at quarterback and not being a recruiting powerhouse causes uncertainty about the Maize and Blue's offense. People will not need to wait long to get those answers. Michigan has a chance to pass that test against Texas Sept. 7 in The Big House. The general consensus considers the Longhorns as one of four schools in the top tier in 2024 — the others are Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon. With U-M having home field, SP+ projects that this will be a pick 'em contest. It can go either team's way. If it goes Michigan's way, the narra- tive of Michigan's season completely shifts. There will no longer be ques- tions about whether the Wolverines can defend their national title or be an elite team. Although those in Schem- bechler Hall would not admit it to the public, such a win would give them a huge boost of confidence. It would af- firm what they have been saying all off- season: nothing has changed. It would demonstrate that Michigan still is not to be messed with. And with that confidence, Michi- gan would then fine-tune its offense so it is ready for the rest of the season. Texas is the only real obstacle that U-M's offense has in the first month. The Wolverines' three other opponents the first four weeks rank 83rd (USC), 88th (Fresno State) and 122nd (Arkansas State) in Defensive SP+. The Wolverines will have this time to solidify their depth chart, lock in their quarterback and get him in rhythm. Afterward, Michigan will start to face higher quality opposing defenses, but the opposing offenses will become less formidable. By then, U-M should be able to navigate through tougher de- fenses, and its defense will crush over- matched offenses. Unless there are any surprises, Michi- gan would be 8-0 entering its November showdown with Oregon. SP+ projects the Wolverines to be favored by dou- ble digits in each of its first eight con- tests other than the Texas matchup — with five of them being by at least 23.3 points. Michigan would be one of the highest-ranked teams in the country at that point, and with the Texas win un- der its belt, there is little doubt that the Wolverines would end up in the CFP. However, if Michigan loses to Texas, things could begin to destabilize. While there would be no shame in losing to the Longhorns, unless it is a devastating blowout, the questions would remain. Does Michigan have a reliable starting quarterback? How far can Michigan's defense, which has less depth than last year, carry its offense? Will U-M beat any of the top teams on its schedule? With those doubts, cracks in the foundation can appear. There would be less confidence and belief that this is the same program as the last three seasons considering all the change. That could spill onto the gridiron, and suddenly, U-M's season could slip away with an upset loss here or there. That is why the Texas game is the most important for Michigan. It sets the stage for the season, and it will de- termine whether "The Game" will have the stakes and spotlight that make it "The Game." ❑ INSIDE THE NUMBERS ❱ DREW HALLETT U-M's Most Important Game: Texas Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers will lead the No. 4 Longhorns into The Big House for an SEC-Big Ten showdown at Michigan Sept. 7. PHOTO COURTESY TEXAS ATHLETICS Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on X (Twitter) @DrewCHallett.