Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU Notre Dame's overall scoring effi- ciency profile for the year would have improved dramatically as well. Last fall, Notre Dame ranked 35th nationally with a 0.5 net points per possession margin. A 0.6-point in- crease would have vaulted the Irish up to 10th nationally in this metric. The top 10 teams in net points per possession in 2014 won an average of 10.8 FBS games each. Seven of those 10 teams played in a New Year's Six bowl game last season. That said, a mere 0.6 net points per possession increase likely would not position the Irish for a national cham- pionship run in 2015. Table 1 provides the offensive, defensive, and net points per possession totals for Notre Dame in each of the last five seasons, and compares those totals against those of the national champions in each of those years. If the Irish improve their offensive efficiency by 0.6 points per posses- sion this fall, they will improve to 3.24 points per possession. That would be a very solid total, but would still rank behind the average offensive efficiency of the last five national champions. Notre Dame Points/Possession Year Team Off. Def. Net 2010 Notre Dame 2.12 1.46 0.66 2011 Notre Dame 2.29 1.56 0.73 2012 Notre Dame 2.25 1.16 1.09 2013 Notre Dame 2.36 1.94 0.42 2014 Notre Dame 2.64 2.12 0.49 Average 2.33 1.65 0.69 National Champion Points/Possession Year Team Off. Def. Net 2010 Auburn 3.21 2.13 1.08 2011 Alabama 2.69 0.51 2.18 2012 Alabama 3.36 0.88 2.48 2013 Florida State 4.06 1.00 3.06 2014 Ohio State 3.44 1.58 1.86 Average 3.35 1.22 2.13 If the Irish improve their defensive efficiency by 0.6 points per possession in 2015, they would surrender only 1.55 points per opponent possession — solid, but also ranked behind the average defensive efficiency of the last five national champions. If the most efficient Irish offense of the Kelly era (2014: 2.64 points per possession) and the most efficient Irish defense of the Kelly era (2012: 1.16 points per possession) were joined to- gether, that Notre Dame team would post a 1.52 net points per possession total for the season. A team of that cali- ber would also lag behind the average net efficiency of the last five national champions. The difference would be 0.6 net points per possession. Irish fans are counting on a leap for- ward for the program this fall, and a roster loaded with experience will be a major asset toward making that jump. A base-level bump in offensive and defensive efficiency should be a given to position Notre Dame in the hunt for a playoff berth. An even greater leap in efficiency on both sides of the ball will likely be needed to claim a bid and make the Irish a true title contender. ✦ Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com.