Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU all record to 1,082-370-42 (.7383), a little more than half a percentage point bet- ter than the Irish stand today. If Michi- gan averages nine wins and four losses over the same span, Notre Dame will have won 20 more games than the Wol- verines in the next two decades and will have improved its margin over Michigan to a full 1.5 percentage points — not quite the margin the Irish en- joyed back in 1993, but definitely in the same ballpark. In addition, over the last 20 years, both Notre Dame and Michigan have lost significant ground to the rest of col- lege football. Both programs have been jockeying for the top two spots in the all-time winning percentage race, but both may be jockeying for second place or worse if trends continue. The Boise State Broncos enter the 2015 season with the third-best all- time winning percentage (.7226), hav- ing posted at least 10 victories in 13 of the last 16 seasons. Boise State is less than one percentage point behind Notre Dame for the top spot in this cat- egory, the first time the margin between first and third place has been as close in more than 40 years. If the Broncos match their record over the last five seasons with the same mark over the next five seasons (55-11, .833 winning percentage), they will have an all-time winning percentage of .7342 in 2019, eclipsing Notre Dame's current mark by a few fractions of a percentage point. Boise State doesn't play the same level of competition that major pro- grams like Notre Dame and Michigan do, and not every record book lists Boise State among the all-time leaders since they have been playing major col- lege football since only 1996. No matter, the Irish and Wolverines are also being chased down by several Power Five conference teams as well (see chart), including the defending national cham- pions. Since 1990, the Ohio State Buckeyes have posted a 249-65-2 overall record (.7911) and have had an even more stel- lar stretch in the last 10 seasons (110-21, .8397), losing more than two games in a given season only twice in the last decade. Since Urban Meyer's arrival in 2012, Ohio State has won more than 92 percent of its games. Ohio State has averaged 10.5 wins and 2.5 losses over its last 20 seasons, a stretch that includes two national championships, plus appearances in two other national championship games and 10 BCS bowl games, most in the nation. The Irish and Buckeyes have sched- uled a pair of head-to-head matchups a few years down the road, begin- ning with a game at Ohio Stadium on Sept. 3, 2022. If Notre Dame and Ohio State each win as many games over the next seven seasons as they did over the previous seven, the Irish may still have an edge over Michigan in the all-time winning percentage race, but they'll be looking up at Ohio State in the all-time race heading into 2022. ✦ Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com.