Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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www.BLUEANDGOLD.com NOV. 7, 2016 19 BY BRYAN DRISKELL N otre Dame's offense has been prolific in a number of ways the last two seasons, putting up 32.9 points per game and 448.0 yards per game since the beginning of the 2015 season (heading into the matchup with Miami Oct. 29). Its 6.6 yards per play average is also impressive, and it would be even bet- ter had Notre Dame not played in a hurricane Oct. 8 against North Caro- lina State. One of the issues with Notre Dame's offense the last two years has been its inconsistency. Not just from game to game, but even amidst them. The Irish offense has been erratic, and that has led to Notre Dame relying too much on the big play. When the Irish cannot rack up the big plays, the attack can stall. The two biggest barometers of that inconsistency have been Notre Dame's penchant for turnovers (33 in the last 20 games) and its struggles on third down. For all its success on offense, Notre Dame has had a hard time con- verting third downs. Since the beginning of the 2015 sea- son, the Irish offense has converted just 39.2 percent of its third-down op- portunities. The 2016 season has been especially troublesome in this depart- ment, with Notre Dame ranking 112th in third-down offense, converting just 33.7 percent of its opportunities. These third-down struggles are part of a bigger problem. "Our self-scout shows that we need to be better on first down," Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly said fol- lowing the team's loss to NC State. "There is a trickle down effect into our third-down manageability." Notre Dame's offense has struggled with consistency on third down under Kelly, even during seasons when the raw numbers were outstanding. BY THE NUMBERS One of the concerns coming into the season was how would Notre Dame replace the explosiveness it lost when receiver Will Fuller and running back C.J. Prosise left early for the NFL. Notre Dame also lost starting receivers Chris Brown and Amir Carlisle, and outside of current senior Torii Hunter Jr., it returned an inexperienced receiving corps. Through seven games, Notre Dame's 2016 offense has actually been a touch more explosive in some areas than last year. It has produced gains of 20 yards or more (8.7 to 8.5 percent of its plays a game) and 40 yards or more (2.5 to 2.4) at a slightly higher rate than the 2015 offense. Notre Dame's big-play statistics would be even more impressive if not for its performance against NC State, which was played during Hurricane Matthew. Notre Dame failed to pro- duce a single play of more than 20 yards in that game. Take out that contest, and Notre Dame's rate of producing plays of at least 20 yards jumps up to 9.7 percent, its rate of plays of at least 30 yards rises to 4.4 percent and its rate of plays of at least 40 yards is at 2.8 percent. Each of those rates is better than what the 2015 offense produced when it had Fuller and Prosise. Despite maintaining its big play abil- ity, Notre Dame has taken a dramatic dip in third-down success, dropping from 42.5 percent last fall to 33.7 per- cent this season. That dip has been a key factor in the Irish's inability to move the ball and score at last season's rate. In Notre Dame's first two wins of the season, it won the third-down battle. In its five losses, the Irish lost that competition. Third-down success is important to any offense, especially against the bet- ter defensive opponents on the sched- ule. Notre Dame has relied too much on big plays. In order to maximize its potential as an offense — and a team — it must be able to sustain drives and be better on third-down. To better understand Notre Dame's struggles, compare it to Ohio State and Clemson, two teams with similar of- fensive philosophies that are currently contenders for the College Football Playoffs, both last season and this year. THIRD DOWN CONVERSION RATE AND RANK Team Conv. Att. Pct. Rank Notre Dame 32 95 33.7 112th Ohio State 52 107 48.6 14th Clemson 52 107 48.6 14th Even if you remove Notre Dame's performance against NC State, the Irish are at just 38.8 percent on third- down, which would rank 75th in the nation. That is still not anywhere close to being good enough for Notre Dame to be a legitimate playoff contender on the offensive side of the ball. If you remove Notre Dame's game against NC State, the Irish offense av- eraged 6.6 yards per play in its other six games leading up to its bye week. Neither Clemson (6.2) nor Ohio State (6.4) can match that number, and Notre Dame's average including its rain- soaked performance against NC State (6.0 yards a play) is just behind those two programs. This shows that Notre Dame does have the big-play potential of other top offenses, which further highlights how damaging its third-down struggles are to its overall success. Despite its ability to rip off big plays at a higher rate, Notre Dame is aver- aging just 30.3 points per game, and it struggles mightily on third-down compared to those two programs. There are several reasons for Notre Dame's issues, and one could point to schematic or play-calling improve- ments the team could make. Execution has not always been what it needs to be, either. Notre Dame tends to put itself in Protecting junior quarterback DeShone Kizer — who was sacked 16 times in the first seven games — is a key to improving third-down success. PHOTO BY BILL PANZICA MOVING THE CHAINS Notre Dame must get better on first down if it wants to improve its third-down conversion rate