Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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www.BLUEANDGOLD.com NOV. 7, 2016 47 the game's biggest mismatch. In the last five meetings between the two teams, head coach Brian Kel- ly's offense has tallied 56, 50, 38, 49 and 41 points against the Mids, or an average of 46.8 points per contest. During that span, Notre Dame has had 51 full possessions (not in- cluding killing the clock or "taking a knee" to end a half), and punted only six times (11.8 percent of the time). In those 51 series on offense, Notre Dame also ended up scoring a touch- down 32 times (62.7 percent), kicked four field goals, missed two field goals and committed seven turn- overs to go with the six punts. Navy will get its share of yards, especially rushing, and put points up on the scoreboard to make the game competitive. However, its best chance of winning is if it can force three or four turnovers — or have at least a plus-two advantage in turn- overs. For example, Navy had zero turn- overs in its last two wins versus Notre Dame in 2010 (35-17) and 2009 (23-21), while the Irish had three and two, respectively. Because Navy shortens the game while keeping the clock moving with its ground-oriented attack, Notre Dame will have fewer series on of- fense to score. In an average game against a more conventional offense the Irish could have a dozen or more possessions, but versus Navy it could be nine or less. In the first half of the 17-10 loss to Stanford Oct. 15, Notre Dame had only four possessions. Overall, the Irish have been profi- cient against Navy at scoring early and then consistently once it gets on a roll: • In 2011, Notre Dame scored touchdowns on five of its first six se- ries on offense to take a commanding lead in the 56-14 win. • In 2012, the Irish reached the 50-point mark again by tallying TDs on five of its first six series, plus a fumble return for a score by defen- sive lineman Stephon Tuitt. • In the 38-34 win in 2013, Notre Dame had only eight full series but scored five touchdowns and a field goal to atone for two interceptions. It reached the end zone on three straight second-half possessions to regain the lead. • In 2014, Notre Dame scored touchdowns on each of its first four series to build a 28-7 cushion, only to fall behind 31-28 before posting a hard fought 49-39 win. • Last year was an anomaly when the Irish actually punted on two of their first three possessions (with a TD in between). Then on its last seven full series (including a field goal drive when it took the ball with only 24 seconds left), Notre Dame scored four touchdowns, two field goals and threw an interception. NAVY'S COACH K Head coach Ken Niumatalolo, a devout Mormon, was the No. 1 can- didate to become BYU's head coach after Bronco Mendenhall accepted the Virginia job in December. Niumatalolo interviewed for the position and "agonized" on whether to accept it (his son Va'a is a line- backer for the Cougars), but even- tually decided to stay with Navy. In eight and a half seasons with the Midshipmen, his 73-38 career mark gives him the most career wins in the Academy's history. Equally impressive regarding the program is eight of his assistants have been with him all nine years at the Academy. Offensive coordinator Ivin Jasper has been in Annapolis each of the past 17 years, while de- fensive coordinator Dale Pehrson has been there 21 consecutive seasons. This past winter, longtime defen- sive coordinator Buddy Green an- nounced his retirement after 37 years of coaching, the last 14 at Navy. Hired to assist Pehrson with the line is Napoleon Sykes, who was on the 2010 Navy staff that helped defeat Notre Dame most recently. Continuity can sometimes get stale, but at Navy it's been a blessing that has created a winning culture. ✦ GAME PREVIEW: NAVY Ninth-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo's 73 career wins are the most in Navy history. PHOTO COURTESY NAVY Predictions Corey Bodden: Navy 37, Notre Dame 34 Notre Dame hasn't been great at stopping the run and will have to be on its "A" game in order to slow down the triple option. Navy struggles versus the pass, which should help Notre Dame, but not quite enough. Bryan Driskell: Notre Dame 31, Navy 27 Navy has been much better this season than expected, but it has not been the rushing juggernaut it has in past seasons. Notre Dame will overwhelm Navy's defense and come out on top. Matt Jones: Navy 32, Notre Dame 30 The Irish just might get their bowl hopes dashed in this one. Navy quarterback Will Worth's power running ability gives Notre Dame fits, and the Midshipmen pull out a close win. David McKinney: Navy 27, Notre Dame 17 In a normal year, I would've taken Notre Dame big without really a second thought. But this has been anything but a normal year for Brian Kelly and the Irish. Lou Somogyi: Notre Dame 42, Navy 35 The Midshipmen will move the ball, as they usually do against teams not used to facing the triple option. If they can force two turnovers and two punts, they could win the game too.