Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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8 NOV. 20, 2017 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED UNDER THE DOME Ken Pomeroy, founder of KenPom.com, has been providing advanced statistical analysis of college basketball since 2004 and his work is reg- ularly used by college coaches across the country. Pomeroy, a former meteorologist, provides pre- dictions of individual games along with final re- cords for teams and player projections along with advanced metrics such as offensive and defensive efficiency to measure teams. BGI: Your rankings have Notre Dame at No. 22 — what are your expectations for the Irish this season? Pomeroy: "I think that's a pretty fair expecta- tion right there. They obviously have a couple of very good players returning in [Matt] Farrell and [Bonzie] Colson. "Whenever a college team has two experienced players like that and are that skilled, they have a really chance to be a top team in the country. … They could be a five or six seed in the NCAA Tournament." BGI: What do you see as the strengths and weaknesses of this Irish team? Pomeroy: "Typically with a Mike Brey team I think you know what you're going to get. You're going to get a very good offensive team that doesn't make very many self-inflicted mistakes, and the defense is going to be a little bit more a question mark. … Obviously, he's not going to be able to get the recruits that Duke and Carolina get. So his approach is re- ally to kind of corner the market on the offensive side, which I think is really smart. "That's what my system sees as well. … And if the offense is good enough, they can compete with the top teams in the ACC." BGI: What's their ceiling and floor for this season in your opinion? Pomeroy: "The ceiling is competing for the top of the ACC. There are some question marks for teams like Louisville and North Carolina. I'm not too sold on Miami. Duke is the obvious favorite, but they have a lot freshmen playing very important posi- tions for them as well. Whenever that's the case, there's always an opportunity for them to not meet expectations. "With the fair amount of experience that Notre Dame has — maybe not as much as last year, but a couple of very well known quantities — there's the potential to compete for the ACC title and get a two or three seed in the tournament." BGI: Who has to step up on their team in order to reach that ceiling? Pomeroy: "There's a lot of talk about [sophomore T.J.] Gibbs. There's a lot of potential there for him to move into a larger role. … There's a lot of possessions avail- able for him to show what he can do. "If there was one guy I was look- ing at, it would be him." BGI: Do you feel the one-two punch of Colson and Farrell can carry the Irish if necessary? Pomeroy: "They probably need some help. It's hard at a power conference level to rely basically on two guys for the bulk of your offense. Opposing teams are pretty sophisticated due to their scouting and in terms of their talent defensively. If you have only two guys that can score, that makes you a little easier to defend. "So I would be a little bit concerned if a third or fourth person didn't step up and become a threat offensively." — Corey Bodden Five Questions With … COLLEGE BASKETBALL STATISTICIAN KEN POMEROY Navy's Style And Timing Of Game Is More Difficult By Bryan Driskell Stanford is a better team than Navy this season, but that doesn't mean the Cardinal is the tougher remaining matchup for the Fighting Irish. Stanford isn't getting the same level of play at quarterback or on defense as it did during the stretch of seasons in which it beat Notre Dame and head coach Brian Kelly five out of seven times (2010-16). Navy is the more concerning matchup for a number of reasons. First, defending the triple option is never easy, especially when it has a dy- namic runner at quarterback such as junior Zach Abey. He racked up 1,202 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns during Navy's first eight games, and if he's healthy against Notre Dame he will be a load. Navy's ball-control style of offense can keep opposition points down, and if the Irish stumble at all out of the gate it might not have enough possessions to run Navy off the field in the way it did Michigan State, USC and North Carolina State. The timing of the game makes it more chal- lenging as well. Sandwiched between road trips to Miami (Fla.) and Stanford increases the odds that Notre Dame's players are a bit more fatigued, which is never good against the triple option. Notre Dame also hasn't played overly well on Senior Day in recent years, dropping two of its last three final home games. The one win — a 28-7 victory against Wake Forest — was a sloppy performance, the kind Notre Dame can't afford to have against Navy. Stanford Has Had Notre Dame's Number By Lou Somogyi There are many reasons to agree that Navy will be the more taxing matchup. For starters, the triple option — which Notre Dame already began practicing against during the bye week — can play head games with a de- fense (and the offense as well when it can't get on the field). Meanwhile, Stanford will be coming off an arduous three-game stretch ver- sus Washington State, Washington and archrival Cal. Also, Notre Dame knows how much is on the line at Stanford, so it can leave everything on the field knowing there is no game the next week. Still, through each decade or coaching regime there is an albatross for Notre Dame. It was Mich- igan State in the 1950s (and in the Bob Davie era from 1997-2001), Purdue in the 1960s, USC in the 1970s (and 2000s), Miami and Penn State in the 1980s, and Boston College from 2001-07. Stanford was like that for part of the 1990s, and especially now in the 2010s. It has won six of the last eight meetings versus the Irish from 2009-16, and four in a row at home. Furthermore, what is especially amazing is of the 13 games played between the two schools since 2004, 10 were decided by one score, notably each of the last five. I believe Stanford's run of success will end this year — and the Irish are "due" for a double-digit win in this series — but that doesn't make me any less wary of the fact that the Cardinal typically is at its best against the Irish. Point ✦ Counterpoint: WHO IS THE TOUGHER MATCHUP TO END THE REGULAR SEASON, NAVY OR STANFORD? KEN NIUMATALOLO DAVID SHAW P o m e r o y i s t h e f o u n d e r o f KenPom.com, which provides advanced statistical analysis on every college basketball team. PHOTO COURTESY KEN POMEROY