The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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SEPTEMBER 2022 THE WOLVERINE 65 L ast year, Michigan football had arguably its best season since 1997 and definitely its best since 2003. The Wolverines were 10-1 with a No. 5 ranking before playing then-No. 2 Ohio State with everything at stake. They then surprised the nation by mauling OSU in the trenches in a 42-27 win and followed up with a 42-3 rout of Iowa a week later to secure the Big Ten title and a spot in the College Football Playoff. This year, the question is whether Michigan can repeat this level of success for a second straight season. Although optimism abounds, hope is plentiful and almost every report out of train- ing camp is glowing, it has been a long time since Michigan has had consecu- tive campaigns like this. In fact, it has been a long time since the Wolverines were a top-five team en- tering The Game against OSU in back- to-back years. The last time it happened was on the back half of the Ten-Year War between Bo Schembechler and Woody Hayes (U-M was No. 4 in 1976 and No. 5 in 1977). There are certainly question marks about whether Michigan can get there again this season. How much or how long will the program need to adapt to new coordinators on the offensive and defensive side of the ball? Which of Cade McNamara and J.J. McCarthy emerges as the starting quarterback, and how will that impact the offense's ceiling or floor? Will the defense be able to generate pressure without Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo? And how will the secondary step up with corner- back DJ Turner as the only returning starter in the defensive back four? The good news for Michigan is that the Wolverines have a favorable schedule. The early nonconference slate (Colo- rado State, Hawaii, and Connecticut) is cupcake city. Michigan hosts both Penn State and Michigan State at The Big House and has a bye week between them for extra prep time for the Spartans. And the only challenging road contest before Thanksgiving weekend is at Iowa. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projects Michigan as a solid favorite in its first 11 games: MICHIGAN'S ODDS TO WIN IN FIRST 11 GAMES OF 2022 (VIA ESPN'S FPI) Opponents U-M Win Probability Colorado State 97.6 percent Hawaii 98.0 Connecticut 99.1 Maryland 82.6 at Iowa 70.0 at Indiana 85.9 Penn State 66.9 Michigan State 69.5 at Rutgers 88.6 Nebraska 80.0 Illinois 93.1 FPI projects that Michigan has better than a 97 percent chance in each of its non-conference games and that there are only three contests where Michi- gan does not have at least a 70 percent chance to win. Even in each of those three contests, the FPI gives the Wolverines at least a two-thirds chance to beat those oppo- nents (66.9 percent versus PSU, 69.5 versus MSU and 70.0 at Iowa). With Michigan having such great odds to win in each of its first 11 games, in performing a Log5 analysis, FPI cal- culates that the Wolverines' odds to be 11-0 are 14.44 percent and 10-1 are 32.41 percent. It is nearly a coin flip (46.85 percent) that Michigan will be at least 10-1 before The Game. If Michigan is at least 10-1 before fac- ing off with Ohio State, the Wolverines most likely will be in the top five of the Associated Press poll yet again. It is hard to imagine any scenario where an 11-0 U-M is outside. Although U-M's strength of sched- ule may be softer and U-M may lack a résumé-boosting win, a 10-1 Michigan should be in the top five — just as it was in 2016, 2018 and 2021. And when Nov. 26 rolls around, Ohio State likely will be in the top five of the AP poll as well. FPI is a big fan of the Buck- eyes, projecting that OSU has greater than 80 percent chance of winning in each of its first 11 game and greater than a 90 percent chance in eight of those 11. As a result, FPI predicts that Ohio State has a 41.42 percent chance to be 11-0 and a 39.21 percent chance to be 10-1. That is more than 80 percent odds (80.63) that the Buckeyes will be at least 10-1. Again, it is hard to imagine an 11-0 or 10-1 Ohio State squad not in the top five of the polls. Therefore, based on FPI's probabili- ties, the odds are 37.77 percent that both Michigan and Ohio State will be at least 10-1 before they kick off at The Horse- shoe the last weekend of November. If it happens, it should be another top-five matchup between these two archrivals — the 13th time in series his- tory and the first time back-to-back in nearly half a century (1973-75). Most likely, a Big Ten East title, a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and a berth in the College Football Playoff would all be on the line, just like last season. It would all come down to 60 minutes of football again. And Michigan could prove that last season was not an outlier but the start of something special. ❏ INSIDE THE NUMBERS DREW HALLETT Another U-M, OSU Top-Five Matchup? Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DrewCHallett. The Wolverines last took the field at The Horseshoe in 2018 (above). The last time Michigan and Ohio State were both ranked in the Associated Press top five in back-to-back games occurred from 1973-75. PHOTO BY PER KJELDSEN