The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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JANUARY 2023 THE WOLVERINE 65 M ichigan has more than a 50 percent chance to advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship. As a 7.5-point favorite, the Wolverines' implied prob- ability of beating TCU in Fiesta Bowl is 74.7 percent, and ESPN's Football Power Index projects 66.5 percent odds. Yet, for Michigan to capitalize on those odds and move on, it comes down to 50-50 balls. Unlike most of Michigan's previous opponents, TCU has a high-powered attack, particularly through the air. Or- chestrated by Walter Camp National Coach of the Year recipient Sonny Dykes and Broyles Award-winning offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, and executed by Heisman runner-up Max Duggan at quarterback, the Horned Frogs have one of the best passing offenses in the country. They are fourth in passer rat- ing (163.29) and tied for seventh in yards per attempt (8.8). However, TCU's passing offense is not one of the best because it is a smooth, efficient machine. TCU is a middling 66th in success rate on passing plays (41.8 percent) per College Football Data. TCU's passing offense is one of the best because of its penchant for big plays, and the Horned Frogs are deadlier as the plays get longer. They are 11th in completions for 20-plus yards (55), tied for eighth for 30-plus yards (27), tied for sixth for 40-plus yards (15), second for 50-plus yards (13), tied for second for 60-plus yards (6) and tied for first for 70-plus yards (4). Every time Duggan drops back in the pocket outside the red zone, TCU is a threat to find paydirt for six. Duggan is not afraid to take deep shots down the field. In fact, he relishes it. On throws at least 30 yards in the air, Duggan has completed 15 of 33 attempts for 767 yards according to Sports Infor- mation Solutions (SIS). His 15 comple- tions on throws with 30-plus air yards are tied for the most by any quarterback. Of his 33 such attempts, 25 were catchable, which also is the most. And his 767 passing yards on such throws are by far the most. The quarterback with the second-most passing yards on tosses with 30-plus air yards had nearly 100 yards less (672). When Duggan launches these deep bombs, he is not just tossing them to wide-open receivers either. TCU is willing to gamble that its receivers will win jump balls and come down with the catch. Duggan's favorite target is 6-foot-4 wideout Quentin Johnston. Duggan has sought to connect with him on passes of 30-plus air yards 14 times, which is at least 10 times more than any other Horned Frog. Of those 14 attempts, SIS deemed that nine were catchable, and Johnston hauled in six of them for 277 yards. Notably, Johnston recorded only 42 yards after the catch on those six recep- tions, again indicating he is not out- running his defender but out-jumping them. The same could be said for TCU's other tall wideout, the 6-foot-5 Savion Williams. Only 27 of his 132 yards on 3 passes that went more than 30 yards in the air came after the reception. However, for all of the strengths of Michigan's mighty defense, defending 50-50 balls has been a rare weak link. It is rare not only because it is one of the few that Michigan has, but also because it has not flared up very often. The Wolverines have concealed this issue fairly well due to their defensive schemes. Their defensive front has been disruptive enough that they could af- ford to keep two safeties high that can stay over the top of outside receivers. As a result, opponents have attempted only 16 passes with 30-plus air yards against Michigan so far this season. However, U-M has been mediocre to below average at defending them when they are thrown (64th in completion rate). When Michigan has allowed these passes to connect, it is often not because they have busted their coverage or scheme. Typically, Michigan cornerbacks D.J. Turner and Gemon Green are running stride for stride with their man and are in place. The issue arises as the ball is about to come down. Both Turner and Green have had trouble leaping up and knocking the ball away, and the receivers end up making the highlight play for the catch. Michigan cannot allow that to happen when it tangles with TCU. The Wolver- ines should be able to stifle the Horned Frogs' offense on a down-to-down basis, presuming they contain Dug- gan in the pocket. Therefore, for TCU to spring the upset, Duggan needs to hit big with long pass plays to Johnston and Williams. The recent emergence of Michigan freshman corner Will Johnson should help Michigan. The Wolverines will need him, Turner and Green to win those 50-50 balls. If Michigan is successful on the ma- jority of those 50-50 balls on Dec. 31, the Wolverines should be preparing to play for a national title. ❏ INSIDE THE NUMBERS DREW HALLETT 50-50 Balls Will Decide Fiesta Bowl Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DrewCHallett. The late-season emergence of freshman cornerback Will Johnson (2 interceptions versus Purdue) gives the Michigan second- ary a play-making boost. PHOTO BY CHAD WEAVER