Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU 90.5 percent of their games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents in the last 10 seasons, and their average scoring margin in those games was 21.9 points per game. Notre Dame's average margin of victory in the Kelly era is 8.3 points per game. The 2012 team posted an average scor‑ ing margin in its undefeated regular sea‑ son of 16.4 points per game. That team played its way to a national champion‑ ship game berth, but an even stronger average scoring margin will likely be needed to elevate the program to con‑ sistently elite status. Elite teams occasionally lose games, but those defeats usually come down to the wire. The elite teams in the Massey Consensus over the last 10 seasons have combined to lose only 3 percent of their games by more than eight points. Only one of those multiple‑score losses by an elite team came against an opponent ranked outside the top 15. By comparison, 45 percent of the losses suffered by Kelly's teams at Notre Dame have come by more than a single score and four of those multiple‑score losses came against an opponent ranked outside the Massey Consensus top 15. The Irish suffered two such losses last season, defeats that got out of hand quickly against both Arizona State (55‑31) and USC (49‑14). Another characteristic of elite teams is that they often roll up high scoring margins against overmatched competi‑ tion. Of the games played by elite teams against opponents ranked worse than 30th in the Massey Consensus, 59 per‑ cent have been won by the elite team by at least 25 points. In the last five years, Notre Dame has played 41 games against oppo‑ nents ranked worse than 30th in the Massey Consensus. Kelly's teams have won 83 percent of those games, but they have only won 22 percent of those games by at least 25 points. Only three of those wins (Air Force in 2013, plus Rice and Michigan in 2014) have come in the last two seasons. According to my latest projections, there is a good chance that three of Notre Dame's first four opponents will be ranked outside the Massey Consen‑ sus top 30 at season's end, and eight Irish opponents in total are likely to fin‑ ish the season outside the top 30. Will the Irish not only win those games, but actually dominate those victories? According to my projections, a team with an elite profile should rack up at least five wins by at least a 25‑point mar‑ gin against the schedule the Irish will face. The 25‑point scoring margin isn't an arbitrary threshold. A victory by at least four scores usually provides ample op‑ portunity to rest starters and build ex‑ perienced depth with playing time for backups to better prepare for tougher opponents later in the season. Those kinds of opportunities won't present themselves every week, but if Notre Dame wants to remain in the playoff hunt it'll have to seize them when they do. ✦ Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com.